Odds vs. ballots

The Kalshi betting markets for the Senate races that decide control, tracked every morning next to the early vote. When the favorite flips, it shows up here. When somebody drops six figures on one side, that shows up too.

The key races

Each price is the chance the market gives that side, based on the last trade of the day. 64 means traders are paying 64 cents for a contract that pays $1 if that candidate wins. Tap a race to chart it.

Race	Market odds	1 day	7 days	Since Oct 14	Early vote so far	Traded, 7 days

Change columns show the Democratic (or independent) side, in points. Early vote split is party registration of who has returned a ballot, from Election Data Guy. In states without party registration it is his model, not a count. Party of a ballot is not how it was marked.

Watch it move

The biggest swings

The largest 6-hour moves in any race since October 14, hour by hour. Single hours almost never move more than 2 or 3 points, so the real shifts show up over a few hours. Each row shows how much traded, whether a big order landed inside the window, and whether this site's tracker pulled that day's early vote numbers during or just before it. The pull time is when the tracker grabbed the numbers, usually within a few hours of the sources posting them, not the exact moment they went public.

Window (Central)	Race	Move	Traded	Big orders inside	Tracker pulled early vote

The big orders

Single orders of 25,000 contracts or more that hit the market in the same second, since Texas early voting began on October 14. Kalshi does not say who places them. What it does show is the size, the side, the price and the time, and that is enough to see a pattern.

When (Central)	Market	Who it helps	Contracts	Dollars	Price

Flip log

Every day the favorite changed sides in one of these markets since September 1.

Is somebody juicing it?

Let's be honest, a big bet is not proof of anything by itself. Somebody with money and an opinion is allowed to have both. Here is what would actually point to a market being pushed, and what this page watches for.

A big order moves the price, then it snaps back. If a single order shoves the odds and other traders buy it right back within hours, the market did not believe it.
The same size order, over and over. Repeated orders of nearly identical dollar size look like one player working a position in chunks.
Several markets hit in the same minute. When Texas, Ohio and Senate control all get big orders at once, that is one trader or one bot reacting to one thing. The question is what it reacted to.
The odds move against the data. Odds that drift toward one side while the polls and the early vote stay put deserve a hard look. Odds that move with a new poll or a turnout report are just the market doing its job.
Kalshi disagrees with everyone else. If one exchange is far from the others for days, nobody is arbitraging it, and that is strange.

How this is built. Prices, volume, trades and the order book come from Kalshi's public market data. Daily prices are the last trade of each Eastern time trading day. A big order is every fill of 25,000 or more contracts on the same side in the same second, which is how one large order sweeping through several price levels shows up. Dollar figures are what the taker paid. Kalshi is a CFTC regulated exchange and does not publish who is trading.

What the odds are not. A 64 percent chance is not a 64 percent vote share. A candidate can be the clear betting favorite in a race the polls call a toss-up, because traders are pricing a small lead plus uncertainty. Early vote party splits show who has voted, not how.

Now check the ballotsWho has actually voted, by party, state by state, updated every morning.

Open the early vote tracker