Four days in a row, and Texas votes tomorrow

Let's be honest. Sundays are slow. Most states didn't post new numbers today, so I'm not going to pretend this was a huge day. But the direction keeps pointing the same way, and tomorrow is a big one for us here in Texas.

Four days in a row

In the 23 states that register voters by party, these are hard counts, not a model. Democrats have cast 49.4% of early ballots and Republicans 28.6%. That's still a big Democratic lead, but look at how it's moved:

• October 15: Democrats ahead by 22.7 points
• October 16: 21.8 points
• October 17: 21.3 points
• October 18: 20.8 points

Four pulls, four drops. We're at 8.5 million early ballots nationwide, and every day the new ballots coming in are less Democratic than the lead Democrats built on early mail.

Arizona and Nevada tightened

The only swing states that posted new numbers today both moved toward Republicans.

Arizona jumped from about 166,000 early ballots to 283,000. The Democratic edge went from 3.6 points to 2.6 points while all those new ballots came in. Democrats lead there by about 7,300 ballots.

Nevada went from 31,500 ballots to 46,500, and the Democratic edge dropped from 4.3 points to 2.7. That's about 1,200 ballots separating the parties.

Come on. Two swing states, a combined 130,000 new ballots, and both got closer. That's the trend you want to see.

North Carolina still needs to wake up

I'm not letting this one go. North Carolina's state files now run through Friday, three days into in-person early voting. Compare it to the same point in past years:

• 2022: Republicans had cast 30% of early ballots. Democrats led by 11 points.
• 2024: Republicans had cast 34%. Democrats led by 1 point. Trump won the state.
• 2026: Republicans have cast 20%. Democrats lead by 25 points.

Half a million North Carolinians have already voted. Be serious. If you're in North Carolina and you haven't gone yet, go this week.

Texas, it's our turn

Early voting in Texas starts tomorrow, Monday, October 19. Here's my ask:

1. Vote early. Find your polling place and dates. Don't wait for Election Day.
2. Bring your people. Get the free Abbott Impact app. It matches your contacts to the voter file, shows you which friends haven't voted yet, and lets you remind them with one tap.
3. Watch it move. I update the early vote tracker every day, and starting tomorrow, Texas is the state to watch.

Democrats spent a decade building a three-week head start. We're cutting it down one day at a time. Don't stop now.

I'm your Common Sense Gay.

Sources: state early vote totals and party splits from the Election Data Guy early vote tracker. National party totals from the UF Election Lab. North Carolina day-by-day numbers from the NC State Board of Elections absentee files. Daily history on my early vote tracker.