Where's all this Democratic enthusiasm? Check the scoreboard

Let's be honest. If you only read the headlines this week, you'd think the midterms were over. Here's a sample:

• "Early Vote Shows Democratic Enthusiasm High" (Political Wire, Oct. 22)
• "Early vote shows Democratic enthusiasm high in some key states" (ABC News, Oct. 22)
• "Democrats tout momentum as early voting rises ahead of midterms" (Scripps News, Oct. 23)
• "Early Voting Surges as Expert Says Republicans Are 'Not as Engaged' in Key States" (IBTimes, citing The Hill, Oct. 24)
• "Florida early voting shows Democrats leading ballots cast despite GOP registration advantage" (NewsNation)

Now let's look at what actually happened while those were being written.

The lead keeps shrinking

In the states that register voters by party, these are hard counts from the UF Election Lab, not a model:

• October 4: Democrats ahead by 33.8 points
• Thursday, October 22: Democrats ahead by 17.0 points
• Sunday, October 25: Democrats ahead by 14.4 points

That's more than half the lead gone in three weeks, and 2.6 points in just the last three days. If Democrats were the ones surging, that number would be going up. It isn't.

State by state: where Republicans are gaining

Here's how each state moved over the last week, from October 18 to the latest pull. States marked "est." don't register voters by party, so those splits are estimates.

Flipped to Republicans

• Arizona: D +2.6 to R +0.3
• Nebraska: D +6.5 to R +0.6

Closing fast

• Florida: D +6.2 to D +0.2. That's the state NewsNation said Democrats were leading. The gap is down to about 4,200 ballots out of 2.4 million.
• Iowa: D +23.9 to D +18.9
• Maine: D +33.7 to D +29.0
• Pennsylvania: D +45.9 to D +42.3
• Kansas: D +11.5 to D +8.6
• Colorado: D +9.2 to D +7.9

Closing over the month

• Michigan (est.): D +4.9 on October 4 to D +0.3 today
• Wisconsin (est.): D +5.1 on October 4 to D +2.9

Holding steady

• Texas (est.): R +12.0 on 3.57 million ballots, basically where it's been all week
• Georgia (est.): D +2.4, up slightly from D +1.9 a week ago

And here's the part the headlines left out. That expert who said Republicans "are not as engaged" named Kansas, Maine, Iowa and Nebraska as his examples. All four moved toward Republicans this week, and Nebraska flipped. Come on.

Where Democrats did gain

I'm not going to pretend it's all one direction. Democrats gained this week in Nevada (D +2.7 to D +3.8), Illinois (est., D +4.6 to D +15.3), California (D +18.3 to D +21.2) and Minnesota (est., D +5.2 to D +8.1). Nevada is the one to watch. The rest are states Democrats were always going to win.

Republicans haven't voted yet

This is the biggest thing missing from the enthusiasm stories. Republicans vote later, and a lot of them vote on Election Day.

In 2024, an NBC News poll in early October found Harris winning early voters 57% to 40% while Trump won Election Day voters 58% to 37%. Everyone who read the early vote headlines that year thought Harris was cruising. Trump won.

This year, ABC buried it right in their own "Democratic enthusiasm" story: likely voters planning to vote in person on Election Day favor Republicans by 11 points. Their headline didn't mention that. Their own analysis also admits Republicans "have won" the Election Day vote historically.

So when someone tells you Democrats are running away with it, ask them one question. Where's the Election Day vote in that math?

What you can do

1. Vote early if you can. Every Republican who votes early is one less person to chase on Election Day. Find your polling place.
2. Texas, early voting ends Friday. The free Abbott Impact app shows which of your friends haven't voted yet.
3. Check the receipts yourself. Every number in this post is on the early vote tracker, updated daily.

Don't let a headline tell you the race is over. The scoreboard says otherwise.

I'm your Common Sense Gay.

Sources: national party totals from the UF Election Lab. State totals and party splits, including the estimates for Texas, Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Illinois and Minnesota, from the Election Data Guy early vote tracker, with daily history on my tracker. 2024 early vs. Election Day voters from the NBC News poll of Oct. 4 to 8, 2024, as reported by Fox News. 2026 Election Day voter preference from the ABC/Washington Post/Ipsos poll cited in ABC News.